Impacts on agricultural markets of a large production loss in Ukraine

Using a simulation model, we investigate how food prices are affected by a reduced production in Ukraine and a reduced trade between Ukraine and the rest of the world. The simulations show that if a large part of Ukraine's production of cereals and oilseeds falls away in 2022, it will lead to price increases worldwide. The price increases are smaller than the price increases that can currently be observed in the market compared with the situation a year ago. A large part of the price increase for wheat took place even before the war: prices rose by 30 percent between March 2021 and January 2022, and since then the price increase has been about 40 percent. Thus, only part of the price increases seem to be due to the expected loss of harvest caused by the war.